Image: Global Risk Management

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Geopolitical focus seems to be shifting from Syria tensions to the potential U.S. non-rectifying a deal in mid-May. The deal was originally struck between 6 world powers in 2015 to lift economic sanctions against major oil producer Iran. Iran was to limit their nuclear programme. If the U.S. does not renew the lifting of sanctions, this could lead to a re-imposing of sanctions and hence limitation of crude oil supply from the country.

OPEC compliance to the current oil production cut deal was around 147% in February slightly higher in March. Now it looks like non-OPEC compliance increased from 78% in February to 85% in March. In total, 21 oil producing countries participate in the production cut deal which will be reviewed in June. Several of the participants have mentioned the likelihood of a continuation of the deal beyond 2018 and continued close cooperation between the parties.

Tonight, the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is published ahead of tomorrow's EIA oil inventory report. Last week saw a build in crude oil stocks from both reports. Consensus for this week is a draw in crude, distillates and gasoline inventories.

Overnight, Chinese GDP came out around consensus while Industrial Production disappointed slightly. As China is one of the world's largest oil consumers, a downtrend in activities could affect demand for oil and hence oil prices. Later today, U.S. housing data is published and also employment data from the UK. . .