Thu 11 Jan 2018, 09:24 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed up $0.38 to $69.20, WTI closed at $63.57 up $0.61. So the EIA showed a draw on crude. Great. Five weeks of draws and the market sees this as a positive step that the market is rebalancing. Hold on there, Nessie. Since December 1st, we have seen draws on US crude of approx 34.155mn bbls. Wonderful. But, since December 1st, we have seen product builds (gasoline and dists) of 38.489mn bbls. !!!! Refineries are running at record levels and the crude isn't actually going anywhere! In fact, we have seen a net increase on crude and oil products of 4.334 mn bbls! I honestly just don't get it. How can these numbers be ignored? Let's add some other harsh realities that are being awkwardly ignored like when you see an ex in a supermarket you really, really don't want to speak to: Es Sider pipeline down - now fixed apparently. Forties pipeline went down - now fixed. US oil production at 10mn bpd and EIA predict it will be at 11mn bbls a day. Yet here we are, flirting with $70 per bbl. I need to get a job with the OPEC PR team. They know how to get things done.

Fuel Oil Market (January 10)

The front crack opened at -11.15, weakening to -11.40, strengthening to -10.95, ending -11.15. The Cal 19 was valued at -11.80.

Oil-Strong selling interest drags spreads and cracks lower. Concerns of ample prompt supplies of fuel oil coupled with sluggish demand saw selling pressure mount, sending time spreads and refining margins of Asian fuel oil lower albeit thin trading volumes as buyer stayed clear. Rising crude oil prices, which hit their highest in more than three years on Wednesday, also helped weigh on the frontmonth fuel oil crack, sending it to its lowest since November 2016.

Fujairah fuel oil inventories rose 5 percent, or 448,000 barrels (about 67,000 tonnes), from a week ago to a twoweek high of 9.074 million barrels (1.354 million tonnes)in the week ended Jan. 8.

India's fuel oil demand was 10.1 percent lower in December compared with the same month last year.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. PPI Final Demand, Dec.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, Dec. 30

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 7

Singapore 380 cSt

Feb18 - 376.25 / 378.25

Mar18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Apr18 - 377.00 / 379.00

May18 - 377.00 / 379.00

Jun18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Jul18 - 376.25 / 378.25

Q2-18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Q3-18 - 375.25 / 377.25

Q4-18 - 371.50 / 374.00

Q1-19 - 364.50 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 345.50

CAL20 - 291.00 / 296.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Feb18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Mar18 - 381.75 / 383.75

Apr18 - 382.00 / 384.00

May18 - 382.25 / 384.25

Jun18 - 382.00 / 384.00

Jul18 - 381.75 / 383.75

Q2-18 - 382.00 / 384.00

Q3-18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Q4-18 - 377.50 / 380.00

Q1-19 - 372.25 / 374.75

CAL19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL20 - 300.00 / 305.00

Rotterdam Barges

Feb18 364.00 / 366.00

Mar18 365.00 / 367.00

Apr18 365.75 / 367.75

May18 365.75 / 367.75

Jun18 365.50 / 367.50

Jul18 364.50 / 366.50

Q2-18 365.50 / 367.50

Q3-18 362.50 / 364.50

Q4-18 354.75 / 357.25

Q1-19 347.50 / 350.00

CAL19 322.00 / 325.00

CAL20 271.00 / 276.00

BP  

WinGD methanol and ethanol webinar invitation. WinGD to host webinar on methanol- and ethanol-flexible fuel engine technology  

Engine manufacturer will discuss market outlook, regulations and operational experience with alcohol-based marine fuels.

Peninsula graduate programme group photo. Peninsula opens applications for 2026 graduate programmes in marine fuels trading  

Two-year scheme offers positions across six global locations starting in September, combining hands-on experience with structured development.

Collin She, Oilmar DMCC. Oilmar DMCC promotes Collin She to key account manager role  

She will lead strategic customer relationships and drive growth opportunities in Singapore and the wider region.

Areion vessel. Dorian LPG takes delivery of dual-fuel VLGC capable of carrying ammonia  

The 93,000-cbm Areion can run on LPG or fuel oil and transport ammonia cargoes.

FSRU Toscana alongside Green Zeebrugge vessel. RINA awards ISCC EU certification to OLT Offshore LNG Toscana for bio-LNG supply  

Certification enables bio-LNG use in the EU as a renewable fuel under RED II and RED III directives.

World Shipping Council at IMO meeting. WSC calls for safe maritime corridor as 20,000 seafarers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf  

Industry body urges IMO member states to establish safe passage and supply access.

Graphic promoting Auramarine webinar titled 'Sustainable Fueling Part 3: Ammonia - next alternative fuel in marine'. Auramarine to host webinar on ammonia as marine fuel in April  

Finnish firm will explore ammonia’s role in maritime decarbonisation at its third spring webinar.

Front cover of study by WinGD and Envision Energy titled 'Renewable Fuel Economics: An OPEX illustration based on current costs'. Green ammonia could reach cost parity with VLSFO and LNG by 2050, study finds  

WinGD and Envision Energy study projects green ammonia operational costs competitive with conventional marine fuels.

Elenger Marine's LNG bunkering vessel Optimus alongside Brittany Ferries’ Saint-Malo. Bureau Veritas verifies methane emissions on Brittany Ferries’ LNG vessels  

Verification enables ferry operator to report measured methane slip instead of regulatory default values.

Map showing existing and planned Emission Control Areas (ECAs). Alliance calls for urgent black carbon action as new Arctic emission control areas take effect  

Canadian Arctic and Norwegian Sea ECAs now in force, with compliance deadline set for March 2027.