Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:05 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed up $0.86 last night to $59.30 and WTI closed at $52.64, up $0.46. Well, Brent is up 3.5% this week. Forwardddddd march! Up to $60, $70? Dare I say it, will $100 per bbl oil be on the most bullish of economists' forecasts soon? This market is brutal though. I mean, don't get me wrong, it is brilliant if you're a producer; they must be looking forward to next year's summer holidays already. But how is everyone else faring in this relentlessly bullish market? Trading margins seem so thin and there is no market structure to make anything work out further than 10 days, so perhaps next year it will be more of a greedy volume game as opposed to putting something in storage and relying on the market structure to do the work for you. Freight values seem to have gone a little haywire - even if the actual fixtures aren't there to back up the market's insatiable appetite for arbitrage spreads currently. Granted, new flat rates will be out soon and the fat cats at Worldscale are waiting to unleash 2018 numbers, so keep an eye over the next few weeks with an eye like Mad-Eye Moody.

Fuel Oil Market (October 26)

The front crack opened at -7.85, weakening to -8.05, during the Barges trading window. The Cal 18 was valued at -8.15.

Rising inventories in Singapore weighed on Asia's fuel oil crack, which slipped to a near two-week low but remained well within its recent trading range. The November 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Dubai crude narrowed to minus $2.41 a barrel, its narrowest discount since Oct. 10

Similarly, the November 180 cSt discount to Brent crude fell to $4.36 a barrel, its narrowest discount since Oct. 10.

Singapore's net exports of fuel oil to China topped the weekly list (279,000 tonnes); followed by Hong Kong (240,000 tonnes) and Indonesia (36,000 tonnes).

Largest Singapore net imports originated from Russia (527,000 tonnes); followed by the UAE (242,000 tonnes), Malaysia (214,000 tonnes), and Venezuela (146,000).

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 7:45am: France consumer confidence for Oct., est. 101 (prior 101)

* 1:30pm: U.S. GDP annualized q/q for 3Q, advance, est. 2.6% (prior 3.1%)

* 3pm: U.S. University of Michigan sentiment for Oct., final, est. 100.7 (prior 101.1)

* 6pm: U.S. Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil, gas rig counts

* 6pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report

* 8:30pm: U.S. CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on futures and options contracts

** Africa oil week, final day

** Singapore International Energy Week, Day 5, including Nordic Green Dialogue

** Russia final Urals program for Nov.

** Earnings: Total, Eni SpA, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Phillips 66, Imperial Oil

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov17 - 338.50 / 340.50

Dec17 - 337.25 / 339.25

Jan18 - 335.25 / 337.25

Feb18 - 333.75 / 335.75

Mar18 - 332.50 / 334.50

Apr18 - 331.25 / 333.25

Q1-18 - 334.00 / 336.00

Q2-18 - 330.00 / 332.00

Q3-18 - 325.75 / 328.25

Q4-18 - 321.75 / 324.25

CAL18 - 329.50 / 332.50

CAL19 - 298.50 / 303.50

CAL20 - 268.50 / 275.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov17 - 343.25 / 345.25

Dec17 - 342.25 / 344.25

Jan18 - 341.00 / 343.00

Feb18 - 340.25 / 342.25

Mar18 - 339.25 / 341.25

Apr18 - 338.25 / 340.25

Q1-18 - 340.25 / 342.25

Q2-18 - 336.75 / 338.75

Q3-18 - 332.50 / 335.00

Q4-18 - 329.50 / 332.00

CAL18 - 336.25 / 339.25

CAL19 - 307.25 / 312.25

CAL20 - 278.25 / 285.25

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Nov17 319.75 / 321.75

Dec17 316.25 / 318.25

Jan18 315.75 / 317.75

Feb18 315.50 / 317.50

Mar18 315.25 / 317.25

Apr18 314.75 / 316.75

Q1-18 315.50 / 317.50

Q2-18 314.00 / 316.00

Q3-18 309.50 / 312.00

Q4-18 302.25 / 304.75

CAL18 311.50 / 314.50

CAL19 278.50 / 283.50

CAL20 247.75 / 254.75


Lilac Cove vessel. Jiangnan delivers second LPG dual-fuel VLAC in series to Singapore’s EPS  

Lilac Cove, the world’s largest liquid ammonia carrier, joins Ivy Cove as Jiangnan advances its six-ship VLAC programme.

MSC Clelia X naming ceremony. MSC LNG dual-fuel container ship delivered almost a year early  

Chinese shipbuilder hands over sixth 10,300-TEU vessel in series to MSC ahead of contract schedule.

Icebreaking research vessel render. Steel cutting marks start of construction on dual-fuel icebreaking research vessel  

Hanwha Ocean begins building a dual-fuel LNG/MGO icebreaker for the Republic of Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, due for delivery in 2030.

Starnav Elektra vessel. Petrobras christens first vessel under Mar Aberto fleet renewal programme  

Platform supply vessel Starnav Elektra, built in Santa Catarina with an all-female crew, marks the first delivery under the fleet initiative.

KR and Hanwha Ocean sign MoU. KR and Hanwha Ocean agree to develop 18,000-cbm LNG bunkering vessel designs  

Pair will jointly explore two design concepts for a new LNG bunkering vessel.

J-ENG 6UEC35LSGH hydrogen-fuelled engine unveiling. Japan Engine completes land-based testing of landmark hydrogen-fuelled engine for large vessels  

Hydrogen co-firing rate of at least 95% achieved during factory testing.

Aerial view of tanker vessel at sea. Ethanol edges into shipping’s fuel mix as methanol crossover eases adoption barriers  

Rising interest from cargo owners, shared technology with methanol and Brazilian production growth push ethanol beyond regional niche status.

AiP award ceremony for multi-purpose fuel tank and FGSS design. ABS grants Hanwha Ocean approval for dual-fuel tank enabling LNG-to-ammonia switch  

In-principle approval awarded for fuel tank and supply system enabling LNG carriers to convert to ammonia without replacement.

Lloyd's Register issues Factual Statement (FS) for PureMetrics CEMS. Lloyd's Register confirms suitability of Daphne Technology's emissions monitoring system  

Factual Statement validates the PureMetrics design for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions from marine engines.

IMO building with national flags. IMO issues shipboard biofuel blend checklist developed by IBIA  

Checklist for FAME-based biofuels formally incorporated into IMO document, supporting crews handling biofuel blends for the first time.