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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed down $1.06 last night to $51.66 and WTI closed at $47.37, down $1.14. Well, that was quite a dramatic end to what was a fairly flat day, wasn't it? Perhaps the market decided that a mere drop of 5 in the US rig count wasn't enough to actually yield such a strong rally on flat price at the end of last week. It didn't take long, but an OPEC minister came out yesterday and said that at their meeting at the end of November, OPEC will decide whether to extend or end the production cuts. That's a little early, isn't it? I mean, it's not long since your last meeting and you haven't let half the market return from the Costa del Sol yet. Wow. I just think OPEC like to keep everyone on the edge of their seats. But is the market really on the edge of its seat or is it slumped back in it like a moody teenager? I was reading that demand is looking good and that the market is rebalancing because US production is down. Really? I don't know what you've been reading, but I will tell you right now that US production is not falling: the US rig count is falling but production is up. Surely this signals that US production is becoming more efficient and thus not supportive of prices, no? Yes crude stocks in the US have been drawing down quite significantly, but the refiners are making hay of high refining margins and running everything they can through their systems. Utilisation is at 96.5%. The crude that has been processed hasn't actually gone anywhere as driving season has been nothing short of a disappointment. Let's not forget that summer is coming to an end and with it comes Autumn (or Fall if you're that way inclined), and with that comes maintenance season. A 5pct drop in refinery rates means 0.5mn bpd of crude that isn't being processed.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* 2pm: U.S. FHFA house price index m/m for June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.4%)

* 3pm: U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index for Aug., est. 10 (prior 14)

* Today:

** Bloomberg-compiled weekly snapshot of key U.S. refinery outages with offline capacity projections for CDU, FCC units

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep17 - 302.00 / 304.00

Oct17 - 301.75 / 303.75

Nov17 - 300.50 / 302.50

Dec17 - 299.50 / 301.50

Jan18 - 298.50 / 300.50

Feb18 - 297.75 / 299.75

Q4-17 - 300.50 / 302.50

Q1-18 - 298.00 / 300.00

Q2-18 - 296.50 / 299.00

Q3-18 - 295.50 / 298.00

CAL18 - 295.75 / 299.25

CAL19 - 289.75 / 294.75

CAL20 - 272.00 / 279.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep17 - 306.75 / 308.75

Oct17 - 306.75 / 308.75

Nov17 - 306.00 / 308.00

Dec17 - 305.25 / 307.25

Jan18 - 305.25 / 307.25

Feb18 - 304.75 / 306.75

Q4-17 - 306.00 / 308.00

Q1-18 - 304.75 / 306.75

Q2-18 - 303.75 / 306.25

Q3-18 - 303.00 / 305.50

CAL18 - 303.00 / 306.50

CAL19 - 298.50 / 303.50

CAL20 - 281.00 / 288.00

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Sep17 289.00 / 291.00

Oct17 286.25 / 288.25

Nov17 283.25 / 285.25

Dec17 281.00 / 283.00

Jan18 281.75 / 283.75

Feb18 281.75 / 283.75

Q4-17 283.50 / 285.50

Q1-18 282.00 / 284.00

Q2-18 281.50 / 284.00

Q3-18 281.25 / 283.75

CAL18 280.00 / 283.50

CAL19 270.75 / 275.75

CAL20 252.75 / 259.75

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For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.