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By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed down $0.53 last night to $50.27 and WTI closed at $46.78, down $0.77. EIA data last night showed crude stocks fell by a whopping 9mn bbls. Refinery runs are up to a dizzying 96.5% of capacity and, like I said yesterday, who can blame them? Total products demand over the last month averaged 21.2 million barrels per day, up by 2.0% from the same period last year. Not bad right? You would expect a fairly decent rally on the back of this news, yeah? Errrrrr wrong, go to back of the room and sit in the corner. The market greeted the news with about as much manners as a Conor McGregor press conference. The irony is that even with fundamentals pointing in the right direction - i.e. demand looking at picking up pace - there is still the underlying fact that too much crude is being produced. Flat price is not going to break out of this range unless there are some serious cuts on production. Demand is trying its very best to perform as most traders had hoped and prayed for, but the crude producers are being greedy. The cracks are strong, so if you're a refiner you're probably planning your next holiday to Langkawi, but if you're a crude oil producer you're probably struggling to look past Butlins in Bognor Regis. I'm sure all eyes will be on US crude production for the foreseeable future; if by some miracle the rig count does start declining, then this would be the only real catalyst for a sustained rally on crude.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 9am: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

* 12pm: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, Aug. 5

* 1:30pm: U.S. Philadelphia Business Outlook, Aug.

* 2:15pm: U.S. Industrial Production (July)

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Aug. 13

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, Aug

* ~6pm: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks with Lubbock

** Nigeria, other WAF countries loading programs for October start to be released

** OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, usually ~11am-12pm

** India celebrates World Biofuel Day, speakers include Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan; Power Minister Piyush Goyal and Indian Oil Corp. Chairman Sanjiv Singh

** U.S. updates El Nino/La Nina monthly forecast

** Iraqi loading programs for September

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep17 - 294.25 / 296.25

Oct17 - 293.50 / 295.50

Nov17 - 292.75 / 294.75

Dec17 - 292.00 / 294.00

Jan18 - 291.00 / 293.00

Feb18 - 290.00 / 292.00

Q4-17 - 292.75 / 294.75

Q1-18 - 290.25 / 292.25

Q2-18 - 289.25 / 291.75

Q3-18 - 288.50 / 291.00

CAL18 - 288.75 / 292.25

CAL19 - 283.00 / 288.00

CAL20 - 265.00 / 272.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep17 - 299.00 / 301.00

Oct17 - 298.75 / 300.75

Nov17 - 298.75 / 300.75

Dec17 - 298.50 / 300.50

Jan18 - 298.50 / 300.50

Feb18 - 297.00 / 299.00

Q4-17 - 298.50 / 300.50

Q1-18 - 297.00 / 299.00

Q2-18 - 296.50 / 299.00

Q3-18 - 297.00 / 299.00

CAL18 - 296.00 / 299.50

CAL19 - 291.50 / 296.50

CAL20 - 274.00 / 281.00

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Sep17 281.25 / 283.25

Oct17 278.25 / 280.25

Nov17 278.25 / 280.25

Dec17 273.25 / 275.25

Jan18 274.25 / 276.25

Feb18 274.50 / 276.50

Q4-17 275.75 / 277.75

Q1-18 274.75 / 276.75

Q2-18 273.50 / 276.00

Q3-18 273.50 / 276.00

CAL18 273.25 / 276.75

CAL19 264.50 / 269.50

CAL20 246.25 / 253.25

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Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.