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By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Overnight Chinese trading activity data pointed to strong crude import data in January - a 27.5% increase compared to a year ago, to 8 mio. barrels per day. December imports saw a record of 8.57 mio. barrels per day.

Markets are now eyeing tonight's weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes. The number of active drilling rigs has been increasing for several months and is now at a more than 1-year high. At the same time, U.S. production seems to be picking up.

Iran, exempt from the present OPEC production cut deal, likely increased oil output by 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.72 mio. bpd in January. Nigeria and Libya likely increased production by 200,000 bpd in January. For now it looks like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Angola have cut production above the agreed level, leaving an expected compliance level of around 91%. Official production data will be released next week and will be closely watched.

Turning to economic data, today is thin on releases other than UK trade balance, U.S. export/import data and a couple of central bank speeches. We could see some volatility around the release of the monthly oil market report from the International Energy Agency this morning.

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A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.