Fri 26 Aug 2016, 10:05 GMT

Waiting for Yellen and news of oil producer meeting


Any comments by Yellen about an upcoming interest rate hike could spur volatility.



By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Voices are mixed on potential talks between OPEC and non-OPEC in Algeria next month. Iran's oil minister seems ready to join talks and support oil producers stabilise the oil market - provided that the parties acknowledge the country's right to regain previous market share. The country in July pumped around 3.6 mio. barrels per day; close to pre-sanction level of around 4 mio. barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's energy minister is quoted as saying that "we don't believe any significant intervention in the market is necessary". A number of OPEC countries which are hugely affected by this year's oil price levels have been advocating a way to curb output in order to spur oil price increase/stability. One of the hardest hit countries is Venezuela, which possesses the world's largest oil reserves, but sees the largest oil output drop in 14 years due to lack of investments in oil facilities and outages.

This week saw a slight increase of geopolitical risk premium on reports of "incidents" between Iranian and U.S. vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

Today, main economic market focus will be on comments and news from the Jackson Hole summit where Fed's Janet Yellen will speak on monetary policy. Any comments about an upcoming interest rate hike could spur volatility. Yesterday, the July Core Durable Goods data came out above expectations and around 1-year high (1.5%) after two consecutive negative readings.

Tonight, the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. will be published by Baker Hughes.


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