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Oil prices might have bottomed as output in the United States and other non-OPEC producers is beginning to fall quickly and an increase in supply from Iran has been less than dramatic, the International Energy Agency said this morning.

Neither the technical constellation, nor market fundamentals provided fresh cues Thursday morning which is why Brent and WTI failed to break above their key resistances at 41.00 USD and 34.80/34.50 USD. Oil futures stayed below their first resistance, tending to the downside until the afternoon. OPEC-sources said that the meeting between the cartel and other important oil producers might not take place. However, the majority of investors believe that there is no chance for a sustainable price increase unless there is some limitation of supplies. Oil futures thus increasingly lost ground. Particularly Brent marked losses, falling below its support at 40.00 USD. The ECB's meeting, after which it was announced further expansive measures to boost the economy in the Eurozone, made markets rather volatile. After an initial slump the euro regained ground against the dollar on short-covering with the common currency. The dollar lost ground against other currencies as well, making dollar-denominated oil less expensive for investors outside the USA. This supported oil prices on Thursday evening, limiting losses. Oil futures were able to stay within their uptrends.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 361.50 USD on Thursday, this was 6.25 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 99,800 deals, the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The selling signals the Stochastic indicator had provided on Wednesday had already disappeared on Wednesday morning. The bearish impact of the indicator thus no longer exists. The uptrends remain intact. Since the lines of the Stochastic indicator are converging at ICE and NYMEX charts, they might even give off a buying signal if they cross. At the WTI chart, this has already happened. The buying signal at the US crude oil chart favours more tests of the upside, see also technical analysis. Oil futures still have some slack up and down within the boundaries of their uptrends. WTI is still far from its key support whereas it has already broken above the resistances at 38.40 and 38.50 USD this morning. Since oil futures have already broken above Thursday's highs and the Stochastic indicator has provided a buying signal at the WTI chart, we assess the technical constellation as slightly bullish.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX gained ground in electronic trading this morning bolstered by steady Asian stock markets and the higher euro. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. Market players are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of the economic indicators due this Thursday, (see economic calendar). Moreover, they will eye the IEA's monthly energy report and the Baker Hughes rig count.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-3)
380cst $165
180cst $275
MGO $374

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-3)
380cst $169
180cst $210
MGO $356

Singapore (delivered indications 10-3)

Brent is bullish with +$0.90 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is up with +$10.00 for 180cst with +$10.50 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180cst +$9.25 and 380cst with +$9.05 with MGO contracts Mar with +$0.73 and in Apr with +$0.76 .The cargo market is down with 180cst -$1.40, 380cst with -$1.34 and MGO with -$0.58.

380cst $175
180cst $180
MGO $335

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-3)

380cst $177
180cst $198
MGO $419

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $175
MGO 0.1%S: $358