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Oil rose from its highest closing level in four weeks in New York, heading for a weekly gain amid signs that U.S. gasoline consumption strengthened and speculation that some producers will complete an accord to freeze output.

Selling pressure abated on Thursday morning as the DOE's data on US oil inventories had bolstered oil prices Wednesday afternoon. The technical downward potential had diminished as well. A buying signal at the Brent chart even heralded some tests of the upside. Plans for a meeting between OPEC members and non-OPEC producers in mid-March made investors nervous again. At first, the 21-period moving average - a key resistance - successfully capped the upward potential of the US crude oil contract. WTI only broke above this mark late at night (after our office hours). Some experts say that investors covered their short-positions ahead of the weekend. Moreover, the Brent contract with delivery in April will expire on Tuesday. The NYMEX Heating Oil and Gasoline contracts with March delivery will expire, too. Analyst Michael Matousek at US Global Investors believes that the price increase is a rather emotional reaction of traders who are afraid of getting caught on the wrong foot. In terms of the technical constellation, buying orders were triggered automatically when WTI surpassed the 21-period moving average, the more so as the Stochastic indicator at the WTI and the Gasoil chart confirmed the buying signal which had already existed at the Brent chart. Oil futures in London and New York thus ended the day with considerable gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 307.25 USD on Thursday, this was 5.00 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 54,500 deals, the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The Stochastic indicator Thursday evening confirmed the buying signal it had given off at the Brent chart at the Gasoil and the WTI chart as well. Moreover, WTI surpassed the 21-period moving average, generating fresh upward potential. Some of the upward potential has already been spent by Thursday night's price increase, though. Since the 7-period and the 21-period moving averages have crossed at the Brent and the WTI chart, there is also a bullish signal which favours tests of the upside. WTI might find a strong resistance near 33.35 USD. If the US crude oil contract exceeds this resistance, upward momentum might renewedly gain traction. WTI might then approach the upper Bollinger Band near 34.10 USD. As long as the resistance at 33.35 USD hasn't been sustainably breached, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish, though.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures failed to remain near Thursday's highs last night, shedding some of their gains. In early electronic trading this morning they are struggling to find a direction. That is why futures are trading in a rather narrow range. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average this morning. Market participants are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-2)

380cst $142
180cst $225
MGO $344

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 26-2)
380cst $143
180cst $190
MGO $311

Singapore (delivered indications 26-2)

Brent is gaining with +$1.8 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is up with +$6.50 for 180cst with +$6.70 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180cst +$6.25 and 380cst with +$6.45 with MGO contracts Mar with +$0.87 and in Apr with +$0.88 .The cargo market is up with 180cst +$2.56, 380cst with +$2.24 and MGO with +$1.23.

380cst $157
180cst $168
MGO $295

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-2)

380cst $154
180cst $172
MGO $419

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $153
MGO 0.1%S: $303