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WTI oil futures inched lower this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories rose at a faster pace than expected last week.

Whilst the technical constellation didn't provide any fresh cues Tuesday morning, oil prices were bolstered by the expectations of a draw in crude oil stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma. Data provider Genscape had forecast that stockpiles at the key storage had dropped by approximately 1.0 million barrels. Oil futures gained some ground within the boundaries of their lateral trends, with their break above short-term resistances triggering more technical buying. In late-afternoon trade, gains at stock markets and a surprisingly good reading of the US consumer confidence sent oil prices to new highs. Futures remained near these levels until the API released its report on US oil inventories. The API's data caused a downward correction as the reported builds in overall US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations by far. Moreover, product stocks increased as well. Traders thus took profits from their long positions over night and so, oil futures headed off with a bearish note this morning, staying far below Tuesday's highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 465.00 USD on Tuesday, this is +8.50 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 42,100 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The technical constellation still doesn't give any clear signals this morning. The lines of the Stochastic indicator are converging at the Brent chart whilst they have already met at the WTI chart. However, the lines have to distinctly cross in order to generate a buying signal. Moreover, the lateral trend is still intact and, usually, the signals provided by the Stochastic indicator are less influential if there is such a trend. The 7- and 21 period moving averages are still bearish at the WTI chart after having crossed at the end of last week. Besides, a technical triangle has formed at the WTI chart, limiting both the up- and the downside. That is why we are still assessing the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex on average : After having declined over night, oil futures have meanwhile recovered. However, the API's bearish data is still weighing on prices. Oil futures might thus test their supports in the course of the day. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average this morning. Market players are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, for the release of a raft of economic indicators and for the DOE's report on U.S. oil inventories at 4.30 p.m.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.0; Distillates -1.5; Gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +7.1; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline -1.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-9)
380cst $221
180cst $271
MGO $482

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-9)
380cst $232
180cst $284
MGO $470

Singapore (delivered indications 30-9)

Brent is gaining with +$0.44. Singapore paper gaining with +$1.90 for 180cst with +$2.00 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$2.45 and 380cst with +$2.25 with MGO contracts Oct gaining with +$0.43 and in Nov with +$0.42. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$5.86, 380cst with -$5.85 and MGO with -$0.41.

380cst $224
180cst $238
MGO $432

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-9)

380cst $233
180cst $253
MGO $606

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $218
MGO 0.1%S: $428