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Oil climbs on weaker dollar, geopolitics, demand increase expectations (Brent: $67.2)

Yesterday's weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude stock - 2.000M barrels versus 0.250M expected. Now this afternoon's official EIA weekly oil inventory report will be followed closely for confirmation of this trend. Consensus is a slight growth in crude, gasoline and distillates inventories.

In its monthly report, OPEC increases its estimates of the world oil demand growth to around 1.18 mio. barrels per day (0.96 mio. bpd previous year) - the world growth is revised down to 3.3% (3.4% previously). Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.68 mio. barrels per day in 2015 (2.17 mio. bpd previous year). OPEC supply growth is expected to be 0.19 mio barrels per day in 2015. All in all, the organization stills sees OPEC supply (30.84 mio. bpd in April) exceeding demand for OPEC oil (29.3 mio. bpd).

Numerous airstrikes in Yemen yesterday ahead of the 5-day truce added to the bullish sentiment.

On the economic data front, this morning's Chinese Industrial Production showed a slight increase to 5.9% versus 5.6% previous. The German Q1 GDP disappointed (0.3% versus 0.7% previous). Later this morning, the EU GDP and Industrial Production will be published. From the U.S. the Retail Sales and Business Inventories will give hints to the economic state of the huge country.