---

U.S. oil futures rose to a four-week high this morning, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

Quotations at ICE and NYMEX edged higher on Tuesday morning bolstered by bullish market fundamentals. In this phase, news on production losses in Libya and the North Sea supported prices. The strong resistances at 911.75 USD Gasoil and at 109.70 USD Brent kept gains in check, however. In the course of the afternoon, oil futures retreated testing their supports. Trade was described as rather calm as new fundamental cues were lacking. The slightly bearish technical constellation favored the temporary decline in oil futures but losses remained limited. At last, the fundamental factors prevailed in the evening and so oil futures settled with new highs. Particularly WTI once again received a fillip in late trade as the API's data on US oil inventories should a surprisingly sharp draw in crude oil stocks, which was considered bullish.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 909.25 dollars on Tuesday. This was -3.00 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 70,800 deals, the traded volume was clearly above average.

The selling signal the stochastic indicator had given at the Brent and the Gasoil chart has meanwhile been spent as the lines of the indicator are running parallelly again, resp. are converging. The RSI isn't giving any fresh signals, see also technical analysis. After WTI's June contract has expired, the chart for WTI due in July doesn't show any new signals, either. That is why we are assessing the technical constellation as neutral this morning. The RSI might provide new selling signals at the Brent and the WTI chart if it drops below 70%. The stochastic indicator at the WTI chart mith also give a bearish signal if its lines clearly cross. At the Brent and the Gasoil chart, the indicator might give a buying signal if the black line surpasses the red one. Brent might find a strong resistance at 110.30 USD. If the North-Sea crude oil contract fails to sustainably break above this level in the coming days, the formation of a double-top, that indicates a change, would be completed favoring a technical downward move. The same formation might develop at the WTI chart near 103.00 or 103.10 USD.

U.S.

Nymex on average: After yesterday evening's gains and given the API's surprisingly bullish data on US oil inventories, quotations are currently still trading on a high level. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of day. Market participants are now monitoring stock and forex markets, awaiting news regarding Ukraine and Libya, as well as today's economic indicators, and the DOE's report due at 4.30 p.m..

API: Crude oil -10.3; Distillates +1.4; Gasoline +0.1 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil +0.9; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline -0.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-5)
380cst $604
180cst $650
MGO $987

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-5)
380cst $607
180cst $665
MGO $984

Singapore (delivered indications 21-5)

WTI is down with -$0.10. Singapore paper is up with +$1.75 for 180cst and +$2.00 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$2.00 and 380cst +$2.25 with MGO contracts being bullish in Jun with +$0.30 and in Jul with +$0.26. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst with -$2.29, 380cst -$2.69 and MGO with -$0.62.

The Singapore fuel oil prices fell app.$2.5 during the Asian Platts window tracking the softer crude prices. Market fundamentals appear to be improving as cargo premiums move to around parity. The delivered bunker premiums were seen at app. $3.5 above cargo prices.

380cst $598
180cst $610
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-5)

380cst $605
180cst $638
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $591
(1.0 %) : $651
180cst: $631
MGO 0.1%S: $876