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Fuel oil trend

Rotterdam: $ 1 higher.
Singapore: $ 6 higher.
US Gulf: $ 2 higher.

Unrest increases in Libya – oil output at new lows (Brent: $110.1)

Geopolitics continues to drive oil prices. In Libya, there were clashes between rebels and government yesterday – the reopened ports are closed (again) and oil production is down to approx. 200,000 bpd (versus 1.4 mio. bpd last year). Ukraine conflict is mixed; the western countries keep pressing Russia for a solution; Russia states that it is ready to negotiate gas price discount for Ukraine. Last week, Russia threatened to shut down gas supplies to the country. The nuclear negotiations between Iran and six world powers is ongoing; but there is no news of progress in reaching an agreement.

On the economic key data front, the main events are:

Monday: Weidmann (ECB) and Fisher (FOMC) speak.

Tuesday: German PPI and UK CPI, API weekly fuel stocks.

Wednesday: Japan trade balance, monthly report and press conference, Yellen (Fed) speaks, EIA oil inventories.

Thursday: Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI as well as several European PMIs, jobless reports from the U.S.

Friday: German GDP and Ifo and U.S. new home sales.