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Crude oil eased down by 77 cents today to trade at 92.84 and is looking to end the month on the downside. Statements from Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries delegates at Friday’s ministerial meeting in Vienna indicated members were in agreement over keeping the output target at 30-million barrels a day weighed on energy prices. The oil market was balanced, with inventories at moderate levels, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Friday. The top producer also said US shale oil production was not a concern.

The dollar index was slightly stronger on Friday, climbing from a near three-week low earlier this week. A stronger US currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, oil prices were underpinned by a round of weak US economic data, indicating growth was slower than expected in the first quarter and revealing a surprise rise in jobless claims on Thursday. The data was supportive because signs that the economy was still fragile helped reassure investors money policy would remain accommodative.

After surging early during Asian trading, oil futures had been falling down to their day’s lows, breaching several resistances in electronic trading. Ahead of the release of the DoE data on U.S. oil inventories and some important economic indicators out of the USA, WTI plummeted to 91.65 USD, hitting a 4-week low. The fact that the Stochastic was giving off bearish signals at this point accelerated the selling pressure after Wednesday’s API report and the preliminary figures of the American GDP. At the opening of NYMEX floor trade, market players had briefly been in a wait-and-see mode. Although U.S. indicators had been largely disappointing, they stoked hopes for a continuation of the Fed’s expansive measures as they do not signal a pick-up in oil demand. The DoE report had initially not had an effect on the oil market. While crude inventories rose to a 82-year high, gasoline reserves declined as demand slightly rose. Thus, the bullish and bearish factors compensated one another, at first. But in the end, traders’ euphoria about an increase in demand dominated the market since, at the same time, it was a positive signal for the U.S. economy. As the dollar was significantly slipping vs. the euro at this point, market participants increasingly engaged in oil futures. While Brent’s strong resistance at 102.80 USD limited upside of ICE futures, which consequently declined again in further trade, NYMEX crude and gasoline contracts closed at their day’s highs. ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 858.75 USD on Thursday. This was 6.50 USD below Wedndesday's settlement. With some 59,300 deals the traded volume was about average.

After oil futures fell below Wednesday’s lows in yesterday’s session, the Stochastic expectedly gave of a selling signal for Brent and G.Oil whereas the indicators is neutral again for WTI. The RSI is also neutral at all charts at the moment. But given the alternating signals by the Stochastic the past days, they should not be overrated, analysts say. As we agree, we assume a rather neutral to bearish stance this morning.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: After oil’s steep rise yesterday, market players still were cautious in early Asian trading this morning, the more so as analysts consider the euphoria about declining stockpiles and increasing demand reported by the DoE yesterday, as exaggerated and not sustainable. In further trading, oil prices have slipped. The traded volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Market players are now closely watching the performance of European markets, new cues from forex trading and today’s economic data out of the USA.

DOE: Crude oil + 3.0; distillates +1.9; gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecast: Crude oil - 0.4; distillates +0.1; gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil + 4.4; distillates +3.1; gasoline +1.9 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-05 )
380cst $581
180cst $659
MGO $955

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-05)
380cst $603
180cst $640
MGO $956

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is neutral with +$0.19. The paper market is still dropping with June 180cst -$1.65 and for 380cst -$1.25, and July contracts with 180cst -$1.65, 380st -$1.90. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$8.36, and 380cst -$8.71 and MGO -$1.57.

The Singapore fuel oil market gave up its several days of gains, assessed more than -$8.0 during the Platts window yesterday. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of +0.35 mbbl to 21.02 mmbl. The delivered bunker premiums were app. $6.5 above cargoes prices. This morning the markets are trading down.

380cst $595
180cst $605
MGO $860

Fujairah (delivered indications 31-05)

380cst $609
180cst $673
MGO $1005

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $582
(1.0 %) :$ 607
180cst: $ 612
(1.0 %):$ 638
MGO 0.1%S: $ 853