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With the absence of any significant triggers to shift crude oil out of the range in which it has been trading since September last year, prices for the commodity now seem to be approaching the high end of the current trend. Though the market did move a little higher this morning, the quantitative easing plan announced by the Bank of Japan overnight was fully in line with expectations and failed to provide extra support. Meanwhile, the end of the Algerian hostage crisis has eased geopolitical tensions. But although economic data coming out of the US and China continues to improve – indicating a strengthening global economy – Brent crude has nonetheless been unable to escape from its current range. Intra-day trends to track could include any selling opportunities above current prices and up towards USD 113/barrel.

Due to Martin Luther King Day, the market was rather calm and oil prices at ICE and NYMEX were range bound in their indicated trading range throughout the day. They tested several resistances and supports but without success. There were neither signals from forex trading nor any guiding economic data to give momentum. Only in later trading did NYMEX crude breach its first resistance at 95.35 dollar, but without floor trading, profit-taking was limited. When G.Oil breached its first resistance in London, a knock-on effect started, triggering several buying orders which lifted the contract above the next resistances. The price rose largely because temperatures in Europe were falling again.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 964.50 dollars on Monday. This was 8.75 dollars above Friday's settlement. With some 37,400 deals the traded volume was below average.

The technical analysis is again not giving off any new signals this morning. The stochastic oscillator is still bullish for Brent and by now, for G.Oil as well, after it breached its intermediate resistance at 967.75 dollars late on Monday. The bulk of the bullish potential of G.Oil was, however, exploited by yesterday's price rally. The indicators are already signalling an overbought market situation, which favours downward corrections.

U.S.

Nymex Access bearish: After the BoJ's announcement to take new expansive measures, which are unlimited in time, and to increase the inflation target from 1% to 2%. Trading interest at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European market to open, from fresh signals from forex trading and a series of economic data to be released in the EU and the USA. Due to the holiday yesterday, the API data on U.S. oil inventories are released on Wednesday and those by the DoE on Thursday.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-01)
380cst $626
180cst $693
MGO $1019

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-01)
380cst $634
180cst $668
MGO $1010

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is neutral with +$0.17. Paper for Jan are bearish, dropping with 180cst -$6.85 and for 380cst -$6.50 , Feb contracts are dropping as well with 180cst -$5.45, 380st -$5.45. The cargo market did stay stable, with 180cst +$0.90, 380cst +$1.60 and MGO +$0.12.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices fell between $4.0- 2.0/mt during the morning Platts window yesterday. Market remains weak with decent demand but ample supply. The delivered bunker premiums were around $3.0-4.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained $1.5-0.-5/mt along the curve for Singapore papers. This morning the markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $630
180 cst $638
MDO $945

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

There were a few suppliers who were unable to supply for prompt deliveries due to busy schedules. The port of Rotterdam and Antwerp are experiencing difficulties with LSFO for prompt deliveries due to operational delays. Due to the tightness of LSFO in Antwerp the premiums are expected to be higher.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 616
(1.0 %) :$ 648
180cst: $ 646
(1.0 %):$ 678
MGO 0.1%S: $ 970