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Market Briefing
Michael Poulsen, A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.
01 Mar 2016 08:05 GMT





A/S Global Risk Management logo. Oil prices rise on China; supply issues (Brent: $36.5)

Overnight, Chinese economic data pointed to slowdown in manufacturing activities in the huge country with Manufacturing PMI for February at 49.0 (49.4 previous). This would usually increase markets’ fears of a decrease in oil demand, but sometimes the market works in mysterious ways and this time, most likely the poor PMI data lead to expectations of additional monetary easing measures by the Chinese central bank, People’s Bank of China. The bank already yesterday announced new easing measures in an attempt to spur growth by cutting the required reserve ratio for Chinese banks by 0.5% (injecting capital in to the banking system).

Also supporting prices is news of a likely drop in OPEC and U.S. crude output. U.S. crude oil output decreased by 43,000 in December to 9.26 mio. barrels per day, dropping for the third month in a row. OPEC output likely declined by 280,000 barrels per day in February to 32.37 mio. barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia states that it will cooperate with other crude producers to stabilise oil prices and Russian energy minister is on his way to Iran for talks; a sign that the freeze deal is not all gone. Some of the freeze-deal advocators are considering exempting Iranian production from the deal since the country is trying to ramp up production after years of sanctions. Anyway, the country’s oil minister last week called the deal "laughable", so the likelihood of Iran participating in the deal is slim.

Turning to economic data, today sees a row of European and U.S. manufacturing PMIs and the day ends with the weekly oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute. Another build build in crude, draws in distillates and gasoline are expected.


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Company: A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.

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