Brent slightly up; expect volatility as OPEC releases monthly report

By A/S Global Risk Management.

Michael Poulson, Global Risk Management. Image credit: Global Risk Management

Updated on 12 Jun 2018 07:20 GMT

Today, US president Donald Trump is meeting with the leader of North Korea, Kim Jung Un, in Singapore. Most likely, president Trump's agenda is to get North Korea to close down all nuclear activity. They just signed an agreement/document this morning; however, the content is not specified and some market analysts are not expecting any major breakthrough from this summit.

Turning to the fundamentals of the market: Lately, the concern has been whether or not OPEC would increase crude output as Venezuelan production seems to diminish further and sanctions against Iran could result in less exports over the fall. Furthermore, several media said that Russia has increased production slightly and probably Saudi Arabia as well. If true, it could look like a step-by-step increase of production in order not to shock the market if they decide to increase the OPEC+ output at the meeting later this month. However, the Iraqi oil minister Jabar al-Luaibi stated that prices still require stability, suggesting that it is not necessary to increase output. OPEC+ are officially meeting in Vienna 22-23 June where the production cut most likely will be on the agenda. OPEC will release its monthly oil market report today, some volatility could arise in this connection.

Today the US CPI figures are to be released, giving an indication of consumer prices. A high consumer price is usually associated with a strong dollar - and is thereby potentially bearish for oil prices.

Later tonight, the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is released ahead of tomorrow's EIA data.

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