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Brent crude took modest gains yesterday

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Michael Poulson, Global Risk Management. Image credit: Global Risk Management


Updated on 20 Feb 2018 08:19 GMT

Yesterday Brent crude gained about 70 cents to close at $65.67. Since last week, the Brent crude price has been in an up-trend, which most likely is caused by the uptrending financial markets, and the dollar still being weak.

During the past week, it doesn't look like the market is concerned with the rising US production as Brent has gained about $3 since February 12. Additionally, API expects the US crude inventories to have risen by 1.5 mbbl, which is a relatively small quantity. So, if the actual build is not remarkably different, the stats are likely not to interfere with the uptrend. Technically speaking, Brent faces a decision point which could send the price above $66, but could also reject it to about $64.50. However, the decision is likely not to be made before we have some indication of where the US inventories are headed. The first indication will be released tomorrow by the API.

Looking at other trends in the oil market, we see that WTI crude has become relatively more expensive than Brent and Dubai crude grades since end of December 2017. The premium at which Brent has been trading to WTI has during the last year been as high as $7 but at the time of writing is $3.22. This trend is most likely driven by higher US exports and lower US inventories, and could in the long term reduce the difference even further.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.






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