According to data from GENA Solutions, renewable ammonia capacity under development has fallen by 0.9 million tonnes from the previous release, while the low-carbon ammonia pipeline remains unchanged. Several projects have also pushed back planned start-up dates.

GENA’s tracker shows renewable ammonia projects totalling around 86 million tonnes by 2030, rising to 102 million tonnes by 2032 and 110 million tonnes by 2034. Low-carbon ammonia capacity is projected at about 26 million tonnes by 2030, increasing to 34 million tonnes by 2032 and 37 million tonnes by 2034.

One of the few major commercial advances in January was a long-term supply agreement between Uniper and AM Green, covering up to 500,000 tonnes per year of renewable ammonia from 2028. The deal followed earlier non-binding commitments made in 2023.

Despite this progress, GENA estimates that only around 3% of clean ammonia projects by capacity have so far locked in binding long-term offtake contracts. A further 18% are supported by non-binding agreements, while roughly 4% plan to use production internally for fertiliser or chemical manufacturing.

The company said the lack of firm offtake remains a central barrier to investment, with many projects, including some already under construction, still lacking confirmed buyers for their full output. Most existing agreements have been signed by traders or ammonia producers, who must then place volumes with end users, adding an extra layer of commercial risk.

GENA also noted that nearly half of all clean ammonia volumes tied to offtake agreements are concentrated among just 12 large corporations.

Looking ahead, the firm projects global renewable ammonia capacity could expand from under 1 million tonnes in 2025 to between 5 million and 10 million tonnes by 2030. Low-carbon ammonia capacity over the same period is expected to range from 6 to 10 million tonnes, depending on project progress and market demand.