Maritime shipping leaders are increasingly favouring established alternative fuels over newer options as geopolitical instability drives more risk-averse decision-making, according to the International Chamber of Shipping’s (ICS) Maritime Barometer 2024–2025 survey.

The findings come as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed a vote on its proposed Net-Zero Framework (NZF) by one year at October’s Extraordinary Session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. The framework would have set binding targets for reducing the carbon intensity of marine fuels, establishing a market mechanism of credits and penalties to encourage cleaner fuels or technologies.

The survey, which canvassed C-suite executives across the global shipping industry on risk resilience, future-proofing and decarbonisation, detected stagnating interest in alternative fuels. Geopolitical instability ranked as the highest risk for maritime leaders for the second consecutive year.

LNG gains ground

C-suite executives ranked LNG as the most viable fuel over the next decade in the 2024–2025 Barometer survey. The fuel’s widespread availability, mature infrastructure and focus on reducing methane slip are factors that could underpin its growing appeal, according to the survey.

Bunkering hubs continue to expand, with Singapore considered one of the world’s hubs for LNG, alongside Rotterdam. Reports indicate that Maersk is investing in several LNG-powered vessels, while the US is considering easing certain restrictions on LNG companies.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2025 forecasts that demand for LNG will rise by around 60% by 2040, driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport, and the impact of artificial intelligence.

Methanol and ammonia face scaling challenges

Methanol dropped down the viability list for maritime leaders in the 2024–2025 Barometer survey, though it remained level with ammonia and behind LNG, heavy fuel oil with technology and biofuel.

Major owners and operators including CMA CGM and Seaspan have announced plans to invest in methanol-capable or dual-fuel vessels. However, more than 90% of current production is fossil-derived, while the renewable electricity and carbon capture required for green methanol production add costs.

Anders Østergaard, CEO at Monjasa, told ICS Leadership Insights: “LNG, ammonia, and methanol are explicitly not more economically viable than traditional fuels, and will likely only be adopted at scale through the introduction of regulations.”

Ammonia faces additional barriers due to its toxicity, which requires stringent handling procedures and new safety protocols. The Barometer survey found that industry leaders are wary of fuels without mature bunkering networks or clear regulatory certainty.

Bjorn Hojgaard, CEO at Anglo-Eastern, told ICS Leadership Insights: “Alternative fuels bring new operational and maintenance requirements, placing greater emphasis on robust safety management systems. This transition calls for a comprehensive enhancement of maritime workforce competencies.”

Anglo-Eastern has invested in ammonia bunkering simulators as part of crew training efforts.

Hydrogen remains constrained

Hydrogen saw a 10% fall in its viability rating among maritime leaders over the last four Barometer surveys. It ranked below LNG, heavy fuel oil, biofuel, ammonia, methanol and hybrid propulsion technology in the 2024–2025 survey.

The fuel remains constrained by cost, storage and energy density challenges. While pilot projects exist in short-sea shipping, C-suite executives showed little confidence in hydrogen as a scalable solution for deep-sea shipping before 2040.

According to ICS’s Turning Hydrogen Demand Into Reality: Which Sectors Come First? report, hydrogen demand could double by 2040, with most additional demand coming from industrial sectors where uptake is easier. A small share of total demand would come from transport sectors.

Biofuel and electrification developments

The 2024–2025 Barometer revealed a decline in maritime leaders’ view of biofuel as a viable fuel over the next decade, which could be partly due to concerns over predicted feedstock supply limitations and competitive demand from sectors such as aviation. However, it remained in third place, behind only LNG and heavy fuel oil.

The IEA Renewable Market Report 2024 predicts that bioenergy, including liquid, gaseous and solid fuels, will account for 95% of renewable fuel growth to 2030.

In China, nearly 500 battery-electric ships—mostly ferries and short-haul vessels—are operational as of 2024, contributing to a new-energy fleet of over 1,000 clean-energy vessels nationwide. Electrification of passenger and feeder-river vessels is cutting emissions and fuel costs while strengthening inland waterways for China’s green-shipping transition.

Infrastructure and training challenges

Fuel availability now eclipses infrastructure as the bigger concern for investors, according to the industry leaders surveyed. However, ports remain central to the transition.

José Alberto Carbonell, President of the Port Authority of Barcelona, told ICS Leadership Insights: “We have explored building a methanol plant in the port, with the capacity to store 100,000 tonnes of the fuel, and it would represent the second-largest investment in our history, after our development of our container terminal.”

Singapore and Houston are trialling multi-fuel hubs, though the pace is uneven and many developing nations risk exclusion from the first wave of alternative-fuel shipping.

The 2024–2025 Barometer survey introduced “availability of crew and trained personnel” as a new risk category, ranking it seventh overall. The 2023/24 Drewry Manning Review reported seafarer shortages at a 17-year high, a shortfall expected to persist through 2028.

The Maritime Just Transition Task Force, in collaboration with the UN Global Compact, International Chamber of Shipping, International Transport Workers’ Federation, International Maritime Organization, International Labour Organization, and with support from Lloyd’s Register Foundation, recently launched interim training frameworks for seafarers on ammonia-, methanol- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels.

The IMO’s Sub-Committee on Human Element, Training and Watchkeeping is working on amendments to the Seafarers’ Training, Certification, and Watchkeeping Code to reflect new technologies and alternative fuel competencies.