The Mediterranean region is on track to exhaust its remaining carbon budget by 2035 unless countries implement annual emission reductions of around 6% between 2030 and 2050, according to new research commissioned by marine conservation organisation OceanCare.

The study, prepared by the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), analysed carbon budget allocation and emission pathways for the 21 signatory countries of the Barcelona Convention. The research warns that without accelerated action, the region will overshoot Paris Agreement goals, putting communities and ecosystems at escalating risk.

Data from the Mediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies shows that Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures have risen by 1.5°C over the past 40 years, threatening climate stability across the region.

"Science offers a frightening outlook for the Mediterranean area as a result of climate change. Unfortunately, despite the overwhelming evidence on the disproportionate impact of climate change in the Mediterranean, most range states are not taking a lead in decarbonisation efforts," said Carlos Bravo, oceans policy specialist at OceanCare.

The report's key findings indicate that all countries must accelerate emission reductions from 2030, with the region's carbon budget exhausted by 2035 if 2023 emission levels persist. Under certain allocation rules, several countries have already exceeded their fair share and would need to halt emissions as early as 2031.

Under the per capita allocation rule, which gives the Mediterranean region the largest carbon budget compared to other distribution methods, the region would still require an average 5% annual reduction from 2030 to 2050. Average per capita emissions would need to fall from 4.24 tonnes of CO₂ today to 2.14 tonnes of CO₂.

Dr María Victoria Román, lead author at BC3, noted: "The time when the ecological transition could be envisaged as a gradual change is now over, as the results of this study show. The climate procrastination of states means we must either accelerate the transition or face the consequences of climate chaos."

The research highlights implications for fossil fuel extraction, noting that a significant portion of fossil fuels must remain unexploited to meet climate targets. The study warns that delays in action will make mitigation far more abrupt and costly.

Bravo added: "Keeping the Mediterranean below 1.5°C is an impossible mission; that opportunity has already passed. But the decarbonisation target to stay within the 2°C limit is still possible and is an obligation under the Paris Agreement."

The Barcelona Convention offers a platform for regional cooperation, enabling countries to develop collective action plans that balance environmental protection, equity, and economic stability. The 24th Meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention will take place from December 2-5 in Cairo, Egypt.

The study methodology starts from 2030 levels consistent with each country's Nationally Determined Contributions and applies a global scenario compatible with a remaining carbon budget of 900 gigatonnes of CO₂ from 2020-2100, representing approximately 1.75°C or 2°C warming by 2100.

The research aligns with outcomes from UNFCCC COP28, which called for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, alongside achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.