A new study claims that global biofuels production emits 16% more CO2 than the fossil fuels it replaces, according to research commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E) and conducted by Cerulogy.

The report, released ahead of COP30 in Brazil, states that biofuel crops currently occupy 32 million hectares of land—roughly the size of Italy—to meet just 4% of global transport energy demand. By 2030, this is projected to expand by 60% to 52 million hectares, equivalent to the size of France.

T&E claims that the same land could feed 1.3 billion people, while using just 3% of that area for solar panels would produce the same amount of energy. The organisation argues that as electric vehicles are more efficient than fossil fuel cars, that solar energy could power close to a third of the world's current car fleet if those vehicles were electric.

"Biofuels are a terrible climate solution and a staggering waste of land, food and millions in subsidies," said Cian Delaney, biofuels campaigner at T&E. "Using just 3% of the land we currently use for biofuels for solar panels would produce the same amount of energy. That would leave a lot more land for food and nature restoration."

The analysis indicates that by 2030, biofuels are projected to emit 70 MtCO₂e more than the fossil fuels they replace, equivalent to the annual emissions of almost 30 million diesel cars, according to the report.

Despite increasing promotion of advanced and waste biofuels as cleaner alternatives, the study claims that 90% of global biofuel production still relies on food crops. In 2023, the biofuel industry reportedly consumed around 150 million tonnes of corn and 120 million tonnes of sugarcane and sugarbeet.

The report states that the equivalent of 100 million bottles of vegetable oil are burned in cars daily, meaning a fifth of all vegetable oil supply is not used for food. T&E claims the energy in these feedstocks could meet the minimum calorific requirements of up to 1.3 billion people.

Water usage presents another concern, according to the analysis. The study claims that driving a car 100 km on first-generation biofuels requires on average close to 3,000 litres of water, while only 20 litres would be needed to run an electric car on solar electricity.

Brazil is identified as one of the fastest-growing biofuels producers, catching up with the US. The country recently decided to suspend its soy moratorium, which protects Amazon deforestation from soy cultivation. Canada and India are also among those set to increase production substantially, according to the report.

The analysis is based on existing government policies and strategies, though T&E notes that demand for biofuels could see a spike for use in shipping and aviation as these sectors seek alternatives to fossil fuels.

"Brazil's decision to lift its soy moratorium looks increasingly concerning in light of this biofuels expansion," Delaney said. "As host of this year's COP, we can expect Brazil to push for more renewable fuels, but biofuels should not be part of the discussion."

T&E calls on governments to better safeguard against biofuels that contribute to land clearance and deforestation when making climate policies, arguing that public funds should prioritise electrification, efficiency, and what it terms "truly sustainable alternatives."