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BUNKER INDEX :: Price Index, News and Directory Information for the Marine Fuel Industry
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Market Briefing
Thorbjoern Bak Jensen, A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.
05 Aug 2010 08:22 GMT





Thorbjoern Bak Jensen, Global Risk Management Investors cautious ahead of US payroll report (Brent: $82)

Trends

Rotterdam (ARA) fuel oil - US$4 lower

Singapore fuel oil - US$2 higher

US Gulf - US$1 lower


Dollar strengthens, capping oil gains

EUR/$ fell to 1.315 level after hitting three month highs of 1.325 during the week. Dollar's strength came on the back of better-than-expected US ADP national employment and ISM business activity numbers. Oil prices are generally inversely related to dollar's strength.

ECB expected to head for exit

Even though European bank stress test methodologies led to some controversies, they succeeded in calming the markets in the month of July. ECB is expected to gradually eliminate certain stimulus measures in Q3 and Q4 as economic activity figures boosted confidence in the Eurozone. ECB rate decision and President Trichet's speech is due 1:45CET today.

EIA data comes out mixed

A large crude draw was negated by a surprise gasoline build in EIA's inventory report. Product demand is still lagging behind investors’ macroeconomic optimism as they fail to fundamentally justify the new $80-90 trading range.

Today's important numbers include German industrial orders, British central bank rate decision and US initial / contingent jobless claims.

Recommendation

We expect a calm trading session as investors zero in on US July payroll report due tomorrow. We are close to the upper bound of $78-$83 short-term trading range. We recommend waiting for tomorrow's payroll report for dips towards $80/barrel or a break above $83 for hedging future consumption.

Release: EIA oil data (Consensus)

Crude: -2,784,000 barrels (-1,400,000)
Distillates: 2,173,000 barrels (1,200,000)
Gasoline: 729,000 barrels (-400,000)
Refinery utilization: 0.6% (-0.6%)


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Company: A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.

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