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Market Briefing
Michael Poulsen, A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.
18 Mar 2016 07:42 GMT





A/S Global Risk Management logo. Oil prices stay around 2016-high (Brent: $41.2).

Market focus continues to be at the upcoming OPEC/non-OPEC output freeze meeting in April. Expectations are building up that the parties will agree on an output freeze. The fact that the world's largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia will participate adds weight to the meeting even if Iran has announced it will not be present or part of the deal. The country is ramping up production after years of sanctions.

Saudi Arabia's January exports increased to 9-month high in January – 7.835 mio. barrels per day versus 7.486 mio. in December. Production was 10.230 mio. bpd versus 10.144 mio. in December. As some readers may recall, the output freeze deal would freeze the countries' output at January levels.

The weaker dollar after Fed reduced expected interest rate hikes this year from four to two also supports oil prices.

Venezuela is the first country to import U.S. crude oil after the 40-year-old ban on exports was lifted a few months ago. U.S. crude oil inventories remain at all-time highs though the speed of the build-up could be slowing down as producers face financial difficulties and close wells due to the low oil prices.

Turning to economic data, yesterday's euro zone inflation data remained unchanged at -0.2% while the core CPI improved slightly to 0.8% (from 0.7% previous). The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 12.4 from -2.8 previous. Today sees Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment along with a couple of Fed member speeches and the weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes.


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Company: A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.

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