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Bye bye seventies, nineties here we come?

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Michael Poulson, Senior Oil Risk Manager at Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management


Updated on 26 Sep 2018 07:34 GMT

The Brent oil price has increased to around a four-year high as fear of a supply shortage dominates market sentiment. Comments from U.S. president at a UN summit yesterday spurred additional uncertainty as he 1) requested that OPEC produce more oil to offset the missing Iranian barrels from November and 2) mentioned that additional sanctions could be imposed on Iran because the country generates instability in the Middle East. The Iranian president, on the other hand, criticised the U.S.' decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal from 2015. The reimposing of sanctions will commence from 4 November and is said to be taking off at least 1 mio. barrels per day from the global oil market, barrels which other oil producers are struggling to offset. Iranian oil exports have already declined by 0.8 mio. barrels per day from April to September 2018.

In a comment yesterday, OPEC's secretary-general urged for cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers. The parties have cooperated since January 2017 to re-balance the oil market, and at a meeting in June reiterated the close cooperation.

The weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an unexpected build in crude oil inventories of 2.9 mio. barrels where consensus was a 1.3 mio. barrel-draw. Now this afternoon's weekly oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be followed closely for confirmation/deviation of this trend. Last week, the two reports differed heavily. Today's report is published at 16.30 CET.

Turning to economic data, today sees the U.S. central bank interest rate decision and FOMC statement, something that could rattle the financial markets and spill over to the oil markets.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.






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Brent surges above $80 to its highest level since November 2014
A/S Global Risk Management Ltd.

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