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Struggling emerging markets and current supply/demand figures

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Michael Poulson, Senior Oil Risk Manager at Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management


Updated on 11 Sep 2018 07:39 GMT

Looking to the emerging markets such as India, Indonesia and Turkey, their currencies are plummeting against the dollar and so are many of the stocks. The Indian rupee tumbles to record lows and the Indonesian rupiah is bleeding as well. The declines all over is a sign of investors fleeing from the riskier markets. The movement is accredited the ongoing trade war which is spurring a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets at the moment.

Looking to the Iran oil sanctions and global crude fundamentals in general, Iranian crude production has decreased from a high in March of 3.83 mbpd to a production of 3.55 mbpd in August. Some of it could be caused by India having decreased imports of Iranian crude despite Indian officials last week saying that they would allow state-owned refiners to continue to buy Iranian crude. However, it seems like private-owned refiners across the world hesitate to buy the crude as they are likely worried about the consequences. In addition, Venezuelan crude oil output is decreasing further and reached a new record low in August of 1.38 mbpd.

On the supply side, Iraq has increased output, reaching almost a record high (4.65 mbpd). Furthermore, the country overtook Saudi Arabia in being the largest supplier to India. Russian supply looks to be capped at the highest level ever seen (11.21 mbpd) and Saudi Arabian production is slightly lower than July after the production cut was eased (currently at 10.48 mbpd). The U.S. is the world's second largest producer at 11 mbpd.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.






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