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US oil production up; uncertainty over potential reimposing of sanctions on Iran

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management


Updated on 14 May 2018 08:41 GMT

The market is still waiting to see what is going to happen with Iranian oil after the US decided to re-impose sanctions on Iran. The sanctions could possibly remove 500 to 1000 kbpd of Iranian oil. But there are, however, ways for (some of) the barrels to stay in the market. As China and India are large importers of Iranian crude, they could go to the next producer - which is Saudi Arabia - and buy the barrels from there. Saudi Arabia allegedly has the spare capacity and has historically speaking increased production in situations like this. Therefore, they could do it again. But as the price states, nothing is certain yet.

OPEC still seems committed to the deal meant to curb production by 1.8 mbpd and the situation in Venezuela seems deteriorating. So, even if Saudi Arabia or some other producer in the area decides to offset Iranian barrels, the market could still be tight.

Production in the US continued its streak of weekly increases as it is now at 10.7 mbpd. However, oil coming from the Permian basin is showing signs of being landlocked, meaning that it cannot reach the market and therefore not affect the general level of crude prices.

Later today, the API is releasing the weekly oil inventory statistics, which could shake up the market a bit and cause some volatility.

The monthly OPEC oil market report was released today and can be found here: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.






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