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| Oil and fuel oil hedging market update |
| By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.
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| Image credit: |
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Updated on 03 Apr 2018 08:53 GMT
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Commentary
Brent closed last night down $2.63 from Thursday's close to $67.64, WTI closed at $63.01, down $1.93, and INE crude closed at 400.10 Yuan/bbl or $63.60. The market has started Q2 in the same way that a child who has eaten too many chocolate Easter eggs - shaky. For most of yesterday, the market was about as interesting as having dinner with that neighbour who you awkwardly ignore every morning, then the US got in and decided that seeing as nobody else was in that they would take advantage of their long positions and sell the market down. And sell it they did. $70 has proven once again just a step too far for this market. It does try hard, but anything above $70 and the market has the same upward momentum of an asthmatic mouse trying to carry a 2lb block of Cheddar up a ski slope. The Permian basin has proven as resilient as Donald Trump's time in office and it's only a matter of time before Bakken and Eagle Ford fields start to make sense as well. Continental's Bakken filed production is up 60% since Q4 2016 is just one example of this. INE crude continues to attract interest; whether this will be sustained or have any real bearing on traders views I think the jury is still out. Fairly indic market so far as people sort things out after the month roll.
Fuel Oil Market (March 29)
The front crack opened at -13.10, weakening to -13.20, before strengthening to -1.10, closing at -13.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.20.
Asia's front-month viscosity spread climbed to a more than 10-month high on Thursday after nearly two weeks of steady gains, trade and broker sources said.
The strength in the viscosity spread, the price differential between 180 cSt and 380 cSt fuel oil swaps, came as a result of tighter blendstock supplies and steady demand for utility grades of the residual fuel, trade sources said. .
The April viscosity spread settled at $9.25 a tonne on Thursday, up from $9 a tonne in the previous session and its highest since May 4.
Economic Data and Events
* 8:50am: France manufacturing PMI March; est. 53.6 (pr. 53.6)
* 8:55am: Germany manufacturing PMI March; est. 58.4 (pr. 58.4)
* 9am: Euro area manufacturing PMI March; est. 56.6 (pr. 56.6)
* OPEC March production estimate based on Bloomberg survey
* Monthly crude export estimates for March for key OPEC nations based on tanker-tracking analysis to start to emerge
* Final Caspian CPC crude program for April
* API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report
* Bloomberg-compiled refinery snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs
Singapore 380 cSt
May18 - 360.50 / 362.50
Jun18 - 360.25 / 362.25
Jul18 - 359.25 / 361.25
Aug18 - 357.75 / 359.75
Sep18 - 356.00 / 358.00
Oct18 - 354.25 / 356.25
Q3-18 -357.75 / 359.75
Q4-18 - 352.75 / 354.75
Q1-19 - 345.25 / 347.75
Q2-19 - 339.00 / 341.50
CAL19 - 317.50 / 321.50
CAL20 - 255.25 / 263.25
Singapore 180 cSt
May18 - 369.50 / 371.50
Jun18 - 369.25 / 371.25
Jul18 - 368.25 / 370.25
Aug18 - 366.75 / 368.75
Sep18 - 365.00 / 367.00
Oct18 - 363.25 / 365.25
Q3-18 - 366.75 / 368.75
Q4-18 - 361.75 / 363.755
Q1-19 - 354.75 / 357.25
Q2-19 - 349.75 / 352.25
CAL19 - 331.25 / 335.25
CAL20 - 279.25 / 287.25
Rotterdam Barges
May18 348.75 / 350.75
Jun18 348.75 / 350.75
Jul18 347.50 / 349.50
Aug18 345.75 / 347.75
Sep18 343.00 / 345.00
Oct18 - 40.00 / 342.00
Q3-18 336.75 / 338.755
Q4-18 336.75 / 338.75
Q1-19 329.50 / 332.00
Q2-18 321.50 / 324.00
CAL19 298.50 / 302.50
CAL20 240.00 / 248.00 |
Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.
For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please call +44 20 7090 1120, or email info@freightinvestor.com. |
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