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Will the seventies be here to stay this time?

25 Jan 2018 08:28 GMT

By A/S Global Risk Management.



At time of writing, Brent oil price remains just below $71. The price has attempted to cross the $70 level several times over the past weeks, but has been rejected... till now.

The weekly oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) came close to consensus with a crude oil draw of around 1.1 mio. barrels last week. This deviated heavily from Tuesday's API oil stocks data which pointed to a build of 4.6 mio. barrels and the news supported oil prices and Brent oil price headed above the $70-level. It is the 10th week in a row of declines in crude oil inventories. U.S. crude oil stocks are now around 3-year lows - at 411.6 mio. barrels. However, crude oil production increased to 9.9 mio. barrels per day and closing in on the world's second-largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia.

U.S. oil inventory data:

Crude oil: -1.07 mio. barrels

Distillates: 0.64 mio. barrels

Gasoline: 3.10 mio. barrels

Changes in refinery runs: -2.10%

Russian oil minister commented on the cooperation between oil producing countries and the compliance to the current oil production cut deal: "Some countries are not fully sticking with production cut quotas for various reasons, unfortunately. However, the agreement works, as some countries are producing less than required by the accord. So, the agreement is being fulfilled by 107%". Continued statements by both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers about potentially extending the cooperation beyond 2018 support oil prices.

Turning to economic data, today sees ECB interest rate decision followed by press conference. Also U.S. housing and employment data will be followed closely by the financial markets.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.


Image: Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management




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