Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

Commentary

Brent crude futures were at $68.97 a barrel, down 29 cents, or $0.4 percent, from their last close. Brent also marked a December 2014 high the previous day, at $70.05 a barrel. U.S. WTI crude futures were at $63.34 a barrel at 07:55 GMT, down 46 cents, or $0.7 percent, from their last settlement. WTI the day before rose to its strongest since late 2014 at $64.77. Well yesterday afternoon surprised with the move it has been threatening for a few days now: it touched the $70 mark. But like market brain freeze, the heights of the market kicked in and screamed "I DON'T LIKE IT THIS HIGH", as though traders had acute acrophobia suddenly come over them. I think the U.S. deserves a gold star too, having come from a position of almost destruction after the price squeeze by OPEC to now being China's largest oil customer. Impressive. They are the crude market equivalent of the nerdy spotty kid at school who had no friends, who ends up setting up a revolutionary company and selling it to a tech giant for millions, swan around with all the celebs, and have more super cars than you have credit cards. Anyway, this market... we are sure to be in a new range of $65-70, with technical helping us up to these levels (do bear in mind that yesterday the next resistance level was at over $75). Yes, U.S. production is up; yes, the OPEC cut - if you look deeper at the numbers - doesn't constitute too much of a cut; yes, the demand increase is as elusive as the Loch Ness Monster, BUT stocks are down off their highs, OPEC compliance is good, the world economy is growing... positives outweigh the negatives - that has to be it or this market is broken. 'Yes, you can have a pay rise' sounds so much better than a 'no'. Admit it, the fallibility of human nature has pushed up this market. Maybe I have been blinded by the numbers beforehand, but you cannot deny the positive feel to this market.

Fuel Oil Market (January 11)

The front crack opened at -11.30, strengthening to -11.00, weakening to -11.20. The Cal 19 was valued at -11.90.

Asia's fuel oil markets firmed on Thursday after official data showed a sharp drop in Singapore onshore inventories of the residual fuel, reversing a recent downward trend in time spreads and refining margins of the fuel. Singapore weekly inventories fell 13.5% to a seven-month low of 19.66 million barrels (or about 2.934 million tonnes) in the week ended Jan. 10. This came as net fuel oil imports into Singapore fell 43 percent from the week before to a two-week low of 825,000 tonnes.

Marine fuel prices are expected to rise through to 2019 as demand for the fuel, also known as bunkers, remains steady amid increases in global trade volumes, said BMI Research in a note to clients. The longer-term trend in marine fuel prices will be driven by the IMO decision to cap the amount of sulphur in shipping fuels at the start of 2020.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI m/m, Dec.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Retail Sales, Dec.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, Dec.

* 6pm: Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs, period Jan 12, prior 182

* 6pm: Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs, period Jan 12, prior 742

* 6pm: Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count, period Jan 12, prior 924

* 8:30pm: Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly scheduled report on futures and options positions

Singapore 380 cSt

Feb18 - 377.25 / 379.25

Mar18 - 377.75 / 379.75

Apr18 - 377.50 / 379.50

May18 - 377.25 / 379.25

Jun18 - 376.75 / 378.75

Jul18 - 376.25 / 378.25

Q2-18 - 377.25 / 379.25

Q3-18 - 375.25 / 377.25

Q4-18 - 371.25 / 373.75

Q1-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 341.75 / 344.75

CAL20 - 290.25 / 295.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Feb18 - 381.75 / 383.75

Mar18 - 382.75 / 384.75

Apr18 - 382.50 / 384.50

May18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Jun18 - 382.00 / 384.00

Jul18 - 381.75 / 383.75

Q2-18 - 382.25 / 384.25

Q3-18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Q4-18 - 377.25 / 379.75

Q1-19 - 371.25 / 373.75

CAL19 - 350.25 / 353.25

CAL20 - 299.25 / 304.25

Rotterdam Barges

Feb18 364.75 / 366.75

Mar18 365.50 / 367.50

Apr18 366.00 / 368.00

May18 365.50 / 367.50

Jun18 364.75 / 366.75

Jul18 363.50 / 365.50

Q2-18 365.50 / 367.50

Q3-18 362.25 / 364.25

Q4-18 354.50 / 357.00

Q1-19 346.50 / 349.00

CAL19 321.25 / 324.25

CAL20 271.25 / 276.25


		ABS introduces nuclear-ready notation for marine and offshore assets The classification society has released what it describes as an industry-first notation to support future nuclear conversion of vessels and offshore assets.

		ABS grants approval in principle for Seatrium’s NEXTGEN Energy Hub design The hub concept integrates ammonia bunkering, power generation and electric vessel charging in a single unit.

		Jumbo orders two methanol-ready L-Class heavy lift vessels from Dajin Heavy Industry Dutch heavy lift specialist Jumbo signs newbuilding contract for two 25,000-dwt vessels.

		Zhoushan completes first bonded bunker operation at Majishan port area The operation marks full fuel supply coverage across all general cargo terminals in Zhoushan's port system.

		Port of Long Beach launches $1m methanol bunkering challenge for oceangoing vessels A $1m prize aims to kick-start commercial methanol bunkering at one of North America's busiest ports.

		Greece floating nuclear study finds no fundamental barriers to implementation A PESTLE assessment of floating nuclear power plants in Greece identifies framework gaps, not feasibility barriers.

		Molgas completes LNG cool-down and bunkering for Northern Pathliner at Northern Lights terminal in Norway Operation carried out at Øygarden facility, with K Line and Integr8 Fuels in the supply chain.

		G2 Ocean expands fleet with six future-fuel ready gantry crane vessels Open hatch specialist adds vessels and jet sail technology as part of a broad fleet renewal programme.

		LNG-powered CMA CGM Adventure makes first call at the Port of Mombasa Kenya Ports Authority receives its first large LNG-fuelled container vessel.

		Maritime trio shapes IMO safety guidelines for ammonia as marine fuel Real-world operational experience feeds directly into new IMO ammonia fuel safety framework.

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.

Recommended