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| OPEC meeting today |
| By A/S Global Risk Management.
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| Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management |
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Updated on 30 Nov 2017 09:42 GMT
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The main topic is the current production cuts, which have been in effect for about one year, likely driving the oil prices up. The last month has seen a lot of speculation about the outcome of this day, leading to a lot of rumours, statements and expectations. Consensus of the outcome has been, and still is, an extension of the deal for nine months until end 2018. This event is likely already priced in which leaves room for disappointment if the meeting fails to live up to consensus. Especially Russia has seemed indecisive about whether to agree to an extension or not. But the Russian energy minister Alexander Novak stated that "details will be announced Thursday", suggesting that a deal is already informally agreed upon. The Iraqi oil minister mentioned that most members sup ported a nine-month extension.
So, the outcome would most likely be a nine-month extension, but is there anything more to it? Yes, there has been talks of Libya and Nigeria setting a production cap, Russia speaks highly in favour of having a strategy ready on how to end the production cut and additionally four non-OPEC countries are attending the meeting (Republic of Congo, Chad, Turkmenistan and Bolivia). Any of these "add-ons" to the deal would likely not change the fundamentals of the oil market as for instance Nigeria is currently producing less than the suggested cap. But would most likely add some short to mid-term bullishness to the market.
What would surprise the market and have an effect in the longer term is if the cuts were agreed to go deeper or the deal would be extended longer than to the end of 2018.
Especially interesting to follow will be if Russia succeeds in forming an exit strategy as the country has been in favour of. Such a plan/strategy can very well have a soft-landing-effect on prices for the longer term, in opposition to producers turning on valves overnight.
The meeting starts at 1000hrs CET (UTC+1), press conference later in the afternoon.
The weekly oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday came out mixed. Larger than expected draw in crude oil stocks, larger than expected builds in gasoline and distillates inventories. |
A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com. |
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