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Market still indecisive as OPEC meeting closes in

21 Nov 2017 09:32 GMT

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Market consensus has been that OPEC and non-OPEC allies such as Russia would extend the production cut at this month's meeting in Vienna. But during the past couple of weeks media has reported that Russia seems a bit more indecisive. No official statements have been made, but compared to Saudi Arabia, Russia seems far less determined to extend. If the deal is not prolonged at this meeting, it would likely temporarily have a bearish effect. But still it is important to remember that the deal is still in effect to end end of March 2018.

On the other hand, OPEC's goal is to bring global inventories down to a 5-year average. By looking at U.S. crude oil inventories, there is still some way to go and U.S, shale oil producers have been ramping up production for the past two weeks.

OPEC member Iraq has shown great interest in producing and exporting crude oil, and recently stated that the country want to ramp up production by about 500 kbpd to 5 mbpd by end 2017.

So, for today, the market looks quite uncertain of what is going to happen ahead of the OPEC meeting.

Coming up tonight is the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) ahead of tomorrow's EIA oil inventory report. Consensus is a draw of around 2 mio. barrels after last week's surprise build.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.


Image: Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management




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