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Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

31 Oct 2017 09:01 GMT

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Brent closed up $0.46 last night to $60.90 and WTI closed at $54.15, up $0.25. It really is a fickle old market this oil one isn't it? Momentum seems to be carrying this market on and on. But the market isn't as complicated as people think. In fact, it is relatively simple. Allow me to explain. The way many people treat the market is like that pretentious numpty who for lunch orders a wild fillet of something endangered, served on a bed of something foraged covered with a jus made from wild kelp in the deepest ocean. Whereas actually the market is as simple as a freshly picked blackberry. Basically, if OPEC cancel the agreement or reduce the levels of the cuts, we could rapidly see 1.8 million barrels reappearing in the market. 2018 would go from a predicted deficit of around 260,000 barrels to a surplus of close to 1.5 million barrels. Prices would undoubtedly collapse as a consequence. The current "debate" and discussions between delegates as to whether the cuts will be extended is a mere device to keep everyone's attention on the subject. Funds are jumping on the November OPEC bandwagon and buying into the seemingly bullish notion that extending the cuts will come as a "shock". As my colleague pointed out this morning: every time one reads that "Oil longs are at record highs" it is always the best signal to sell sell selll! I mentioned before that the market is about as fractured as David Busst's leg, and real proper fundamentals are not currently part of anybody's strategy when it comes to Brent futures.

Fuel Oil Market (October 30)

The front crack opened at -8.45, strengthening to -7.90 across the day. The Cal 18 was valued at -8.10.

Elevated trading activity in the physical fuel oil market in the Singapore window saw cash premiums of the 380-cst high-sulphur fuel oil rise, snapping three straight sessions of declines

Sentiment in the paper markets also improved at the start of the week with the near-dated fuel oil time spreads and cracks firming on Monday, recovering some of the losses seen in the previous week

The stronger cracks come despite rising Brent crude prices which broke past $60 a barrel on Friday on support among the world's top producers for extending a deal to rein in output and as the dollar retreated from threemonth peaks. Strong refining margins will be sustained for the next couple of years given a tight balance outlook on the back of persistently slow capacity expansions.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 10am: Eurozone GDP SA y/y for 3Q, advance, est. 2.4% (prior 2.3%)

* 1:45pm: U.S. Chicago business barometer SA for Oct., est. 60 (prior 65.2)

* 2pm: U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence SA for Oct., est. 121.3 (prior 119.8)

* 6pm: U.S. EIA releases Petroleum Supply Monthly and related data, including August crude, natgas production

* 8:30pm: U.S. API issues weekly oil inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov17 - 351.75 / 353.75

Dec17 - 350.25 / 352.25

Jan18 - 348.25 / 350.25

Feb18 - 346.75 / 348.75

Mar18 - 345.50 / 347.50

Apr18 - 344.25 / 346.25

Q1-18 - 347.00 / 349.00

Q2-18 - 343.00 / 345.00

Q3-18 - 338.75 / 341.25

Q4-18 - 334.75 / 337.25

CAL18 - 338.75 / 341.75

CAL19 - 307.75 / 312.75

CAL20 - 277.75 / 284.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov17 - 356.75 / 358.75

Dec17 - 355.25 / 357.25

Jan18 - 353.50 / 355.50

Feb18 - 352.75 / 354.75

Mar18 - 351.75 / 353.75

Apr18 - 350.75 / 352.75

Q1-18 - 352.75 / 354.75

Q2-18 - 349.25 / 351.25

Q3-18 - 345.00 / 347.50

Q4-18 - 342.00 / 344.50

CAL18 - 345.25 / 348.25

CAL19 - 316.25 / 321.25

CAL20 - 287.25 / 294.25

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Nov17 332.25 / 334.25

Dec17 328.75 / 330.75

Jan18 328.00 / 330.00

Feb18 327.75 / 329.75

Mar18 327.50 / 329.50

Apr18 327.00 / 329.00

Q1-18 327.75 / 329.75

Q2-18 326.25 / 328.25

Q3-18 321.75 / 324.25

Q4-18 314.50 / 317.00

CAL18 320.50 / 323.50

CAL19 287.50 / 292.50

CAL20 256.75 / 263.75



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


Image: Freight Investor Services (FIS) logo. Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)




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