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Thu 12 Oct 2017, 09:16 GMT

The news has not changed much since the start of this week


By A/S Global Risk Management.

By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Saudi Arabia's statement of supplying less oil in November still holds Brent above 56 USD in addition to European crude stocks being below 5-year average.

Furthermore the disputes in Iraq, in terms of the Kurdish region, still is a hot topic with risk of escalating. The situation could conclude in Turkey closing oil supply from the Kurdish region to the global market resulting in some 500 kbpd not being supplied

Looking at the longer term Iraq and/or Iran could step in to fill the decreased supply from Saudi Arabia. Iran has increased production remarkably since sanctions were lifted, and rumors are telling about new investments in Iraqi productivity.

Additionally the US is exporting record high amounts of the sweeter WTI grade crude oil, as the spread to Brent is relatively high making it profitable for consumers to switch. Most of the US exports are going to Asia as the demand seems strong on top of slightly bullish financials. The increased US supply is likely going to stay at these levels as long as the spread between WTI and Brent is more than 5 USD. So, this is raising the question if market is capable of digesting this increased supply. Just for now it looks so, bearing in mind that the oil market can change quickly.

One day late, the API published for the US oil stocks data. The data pointed pointed to a build of 3.1mbbl crude, 2mbbl build in distillates and a draw of 1.6mbbl on gasoline stocks. The EIA will release the inventory figures later today. Consensus is a build in crude; expect some volatility around the publishing.

OPEC released the monthly report yesterday, with another increased demand forecast for 2018. At the moment it doesn't seem to affect the price much, but it is definitely worth keeping in mind.


A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.

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