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Saudi Arabia will cut exports - not production and Nate aftermath remains

10 Oct 2017 09:00 GMT

By A/S Global Risk Management.



By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Saudi Arabia has stated that it would make a "cut of 560,000 barrels a day in its allocations to customers". This does likely not mean that they will actually cut production; not export the same volume. Meaning that Saudi inventories could increase which usually is a bearish sign. This statement likely comes as a counterweight to the record high U.S. export.

However bullish this statement seems, the volume could be offset by Iraq. Allegedly, the Iraqi government is in "talks" with suppliers on developing a project said to boost Iraqi production to 5 mbpd. Iraq has pledged to cut output in accordance with the current oil production cut agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers. However, the country could possibly be attempting to fill the export gap that Saudi Arabia is said to leave from November. Likely partly or fully offsetting each other with limited implication on Brent pricing.

Around 85-90% of U.S. oil producers' production in the Gulf of Mexico, equal to almost 1.5M barrels per day, remains offline in the aftermath of the hurricane Nate which raged through the area over the weekend. Due to holiday in the U.S. on Monday, the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be one day delayed (i.e. Wednesday and Thursday). Any Nate effects will be followed closely in the data.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.




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