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WTI-Brent spread, Libya and weekly oil stocks data coming up

By A/S Global Risk Management.



Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management


Updated on 12 Sep 2017 11:44 GMT

By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

The events in U.S. over the last two weeks have likely changed the market a bit. Expectations is now that Brent likely is going to trade above 50 USD in the short term, but that the current level of about 54 is a bit too high. Near-term outlook is Brent prices of just below 53 USD as the U.S. refinery utilization rate approaches standard levels.

The spread between Brent and WTI has reached a remarkably high level above 5.5 USD.

Refineries are continuously coming back online, but as of last week, the US refinery utilization rate was recorded the lowest September reading since 2008.

In Florida, allegedly 42% of retail gas stations are out of fuel. Additionally, the government is working on getting fuel into the state on top of closed ports and power outages. The combination of this news suggests that less WTI crude oil is being processed by U.S. refineries, and gasoline demand is looked to Europe to be covered by refined Brent. This seems as a likely explanation of why the Brent-WTI spread is that high.

The situation of Libyan production which has been unstable the last month, now seems to be recovering with production rising.

Tonight, the weekly API U.S. inventory figures will be released with expectations is of a crude oil build. Expect volatiity around the publishing tonight.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.






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