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As the production disruptions of Harvey wear off, hurricane Irma is raging across the Caribbean towards Florida

07 Sep 2017 08:17 GMT

By A/S Global Risk Management.



By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Irma has reached the status of a category five hurricane and has already devastated some Caribbean islands. The current projection is that it is headed towards Florida and possibly turning up along the US east coast. The hurricane is estimated to hit Florida on Sunday afternoon. Parts of Florida have already been evacuated in preparation for the storm. The impact on the oil market is most likely going to be on the DEMAND side. Harvey mainly disrupted the SUPPLY side as it hit a large concentration of refineries and crude production. But Irma is projected to hit highly populated areas such as Miami, which likely will result in less demand of products, not necessarily crude oil. Likely both gasoline, diesel and jet fuel demand will be disrupted.

Turning to economic data, the U.S. GDP growth climbed higher than last quarter and was higher than expected as well. Chinese PMI figures are mostly higher than last period and higher than expectations. For both countries, this is bullish news with a likelihood of spilling over to oil demand. The story of India is, however, the opposite. The GDP growth of India decreased from last period; additionally, the decrease was more than expected. Likely, this is an effect of two major political/economical decisions which have provoked the Indians to reduce consumption - ultimately resulting in decreasing growth

This afternoon, the weekly oil inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be followed closely for confirmation/deviation from yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decline in crude oil stocks. Expect increased volatility around publishing time (17.00 CET).



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.


Image: Michael Poulson, Oil Risk Manager at A/S Global Risk Management. Image credit: A/S Global Risk Management




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