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BUNKER INDEX :: Price Index, News and Directory Information for the Marine Fuel Industry
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Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

06 Sep 2017 08:29 GMT

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed up $1.04 last night to $53.38 and WTI closed at $48.66 up $1.37. Quite a spike yesterday. Mainly due to the fact that refineries are slowly but surely coming back on line, which means crude has a home once again, for now. Apparently half of the refinery outages caused by Harvey will be back online by Thursday, but get this - in the first month after the storm, oil demand will fall by 600,000 bpd while supply will only be curtailed by 400,000 bpd. Apparently. So Harvey has actually been detrimental for the oil demand/supply balance? But we rally over a dollar. Ummm. Did I miss something? Also, Goldman's reckon that until mid-September EIA data could show a total build of 40mn bbls on crude. Ouch strike 1. Then there's maintenance season after, so we should see crude builds as well as refinery utilisation obviously drop off. Then we have Hurricane Irma, which is looking like one of the strongest hurricane's ever recorded in the Atlantic. If this hits Florida, then it will not only mean a sizeable drop in demand, but production won't get hit. Strike 2. The we have the massive elephant in the room wearing one of those spangled dresses and a funny hat that you sometimes see elephants in: the OPEC Non/OPEC agreement. Apparently there have been no discussions yet as to any further extension of this agreement. It's nearly 9 months since the agreement started and flat price has dropped $3.72 since 3 January 2017 - not what you call a success, is it? So why extend? Strike 3 - get outtttta hereeee. Whatever. I suppose what I'm trying to say is (in case you hadn' t caught on to my theme all year) what exactly is going to cause prices to rise higher than where they are? Ah Mr Jong Un, there you are.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 7am: Germany factory orders m/m for July, est. 0.2% (prior 1%)

** Trade balance for July, est. -$44.7b (prior -$43.6b)

** Census Bureau releases crude export date through July 2017

* 3pm: Canada Bank of Canada overnight lending rate, est. 0.75% (prior 0.75%) * 9:30pm: API weekly U.S. oil inventory report (delayed one day due to holiday) * No exact timing ** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report ** Offshore Europe conference, Aberdeen, 2nd day of 4 Singapore 380 cSt

Oct17 - 315.00 / 317.00

Nov17 - 313.25 / 315.25

Dec17 - 311.50 / 313.50

Jan18 - 309.75 / 311.75

Feb18 - 308.50 / 310.50

Mar18 - 307.75 / 309.75

Q4-17 - 313.25 / 315.25

Q1-18 - 308.50 / 310.50

Q2-18 - 306.50 / 309.00

Q3-18 - 305.50 / 308.00

CAL18 - 305.25 / 308.755

CAL19 - 298.50 / 303.50

CAL20 - 280.50 / 287.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct17 - 319.75 / 321.75

Nov17 - 318.75 / 320.75

Dec17 - 317.50 / 319.50

Jan18 - 315.75 / 317.75

Feb18 - 315.00 / 317.00

Mar18 - 314.50 / 316.50

Q4-17 - 318.50 / 320.50

Q1-18 - 315.00 / 317.00

Q2-18 - 313.75 / 316.25

Q3-18 - 313.00 / 315.50

CAL18 - 313.00 / 315.50

CAL19 - 307.25 / 312.25

CAL20 - 289.50 / 296.50

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Oct17 298.50 / 300.50

Nov17 294.75 / 296.75

Dec17 294.75 / 296.75

Jan18 292.50 / 294.50

Feb18 292.50 / 294.50

Mar18 292.50 / 294.50

Q4-17 295.00 / 297.00

Q1-18 293.00 / 295.00

Q2-18 292.75 / 295.25br>
Q3-18 286.50 / 289.00

CAL18 292.50 / 295.00

CAL19 280.25 / 285.25

CAL20 262.50 / 269.50



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


Image: Freight Investor Services (FIS) logo. Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)




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