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Harvey is gone, but the effect on production and oil rigs remains

04 Sep 2017 07:49 GMT

By A/S Global Risk Management.



By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

The geopolitical risk premium has increased over the weekend on tensions between North Korea and most of the world after another nuclear test by North Korea. It remains uncertain if crude oil supply to the country is halted due to potential sanctions.

Friday, the weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes showed an unchanged number of active drilling rigs last week. The numbers are uncertain due to Harvey as the change in rig counts in 47 counties in Texas were not verified.

Libya oil output remains disrupted with around 350,000 barrels per day reduction due to blocked pipelines and oil field closures.

Today is a U.S. holiday (Labor Day); this means that the two weekly oil inventory reports will be one day delayed, i.e. API on Wednesday, EIA on Thursday afternoon. The two readings will be followed closely for a "Harvey effect" with less oil pumped and refinery shut-downs.

Turning to economic data, Friday's August U.S. job report came out weaker than expected ahead of the next central bank meeting later this month. Thursday, the European Central Bank conducts a meeting; some volatility could arise as markets are looking for hints of economic tapering.



A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.




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