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BUNKER INDEX :: Price Index, News and Directory Information for the Marine Fuel Industry
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Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

31 Aug 2017 08:18 GMT

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed down $1.14 last night to $50.86 and WTI closed at $45.96 down $0.48. Oct Brent expires today. EIA data showed some unsurprising numbers last night considering the fact that by the time stats were calculated last week the shutdown effects had not filtered to EIA yet. Yet, even with this foresight the market didn't budge a notch when fairly bullish stats came out (draw of 5.4mn bbls in crude) and instead slowly but surely got sold down by 2.5% on the day. I made a point early this week that owing to Hurricane Harvey the refineries will more than likely bring forward maintenance season. So in theory, with the fact that stocks are still very high in the US and that refinery shutdowns usually last 6 weeks or so, I don't see the unfortunate flooding having a further effect on maintenance season than would have taken place anyway - perhaps another couple of weeks at worst. The roofer of the barrel right now is, of course, gasoline. The Colonial pipeline looks like it will shut down for a while, and with gasoline fuelling the majority of the Southern and Colonial states' Ford F150 pickup trucks, RBOB has soared like a bald-headed eagle. Crude on the other hand, nah. Let's face it, the US is still the world's biggest consumer of crude. With 25 pct of US refineries shutdown, and looking to stay that week for the next 2 months or so, crude is inevitably struggling. I am not contradicting myself here - yesterday, I mentioned that US production shut down will be positive for oil, so allow me to clarify. There is still plenty of oil to go around - the US production increases we have witnessed this year were only nullifying the OPEC/Non-OPEC cuts. I did expect to see a rally on flat price, but that was purely down to the fact that the market's obvious reaction to events is usually the opposite of the opposite - look at post EIA data trading. Alas I was wrong - behead him! Just a glance at the Brent curve will prove that the supposed strength that was coming back into the market is now looking weaker than!

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* ~12pm: Russia refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* 1:30pm: U.S.

** Initial jobless claims for week ended Aug. 26, est. 238k (prior 234k)

** Personal spending for July, est. 0.4% (prior 0.1%)

* 2:45pm: U.S. Chicago business barometer for Aug., est. 58.5 (prior 58.9)

* 5pm: U.S. EIA's monthly crude and natgas production "914" report

* 7pm: U.S. EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly and related reports

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep17 - 299.00 / 301.00

Oct17 - 298.75 / 300.75

Nov17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Dec17 - 296.25 / 298.25

Jan18 - 295.25 / 297.25

Feb18 - 294.00 / 296.00

Q4-17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Q1-18 - 294.25 / 296.25

Q2-18 - 292.50 / 295.00

Q3-18 - 291.50 / 294.00

CAL18 - 292.25 / 295.75

CAL19 - 286.25 / 291.25

CAL20 - 268.50 / 275.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep17 - 304.75 / 306.75

Oct17 - 304.50 / 306.50

Nov17 - 303.75 / 305.75

Dec17 - 302.50 / 304.50

Jan18 - 302.00 / 304.00

Feb18 - 301.00 / 303.00

Q4-17 - 303.50 / 305.50

Q1-18 - 301.00 / 303.00

Q2-18 - 299.75 / 302.25

Q3-18 - 299.00 / 301.50

CAL18 - 299.50 / 303.00

CAL19 - 295.00 / 300.00

CAL20 - 277.50 / 284.50

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Sep17 285.25 / 287.25

Oct17 282.50 / 284.50

Nov17 279.50 / 281.50

Dec17 277.00 / 279.00

Jan18 277.75 / 279.75

Feb18 278.00 / 280.00

Q4-17 279.50 / 281.50

Q1-18 277.50 / 279.50

Q2-18 277.25 / 279.75

Q3-18 277.00 / 279.50

CAL18 276.50 / 280.00

CAL19 266.00 / 271.00

CAL20 248.00 / 255.00



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


Image: Freight Investor Services (FIS) logo. Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)




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