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BUNKER INDEX :: Price Index, News and Directory Information for the Marine Fuel Industry
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Oil and fuel oil hedging market update

10 Aug 2017 07:56 GMT

By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed last night at $52.70 up 0.56 and WTI closed at $49.56 up 0.39. So EIA data last night was met with the same bored look that a cow has when it gives you one of those weird stares while eating grass. Crude stocks were down a healthy 6.4mn bbls but refinery runs were up to a massive 96.3% of capacity; so all the crude that was drawn was basically run through the refineries and this resulted in a gasoline build of 3.4mn bbls. Driving season? Hmmm. As readers will know, I'm not what you would call bullish about the oil market, but I have to take my hat off to Pierre Andurand, the hedge fund manager, who is adamant we will see crude above $100 per bbl before 2020. If I were a betting man I would fly to Geneva and happily leave a crisp 5 pound note on his front desk that we will not. I mean really? Above $100 per bbl? That's double where we are now. Double. Of course nobody can predict the oil price and it is always a bad idea to attempt to, but there is, in my mind, absolutely nothing that can propel this market up to triple digits in the foreseeable future. The OPEC/Non-OPEC agreement last November established one very firm thing - the minute OPEC try and raise prices by cutting production the US producers will react accordingly to fill the void. This results in a tug of war that we have witnessed all year and the final outcome is a rangebound market. I made a point the other day that the oil price is no longer "low". It's just the price.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 12am: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for Aug. 5, est. 240k (prior 240k); U.S. Continuing Claims for July 29, est. 1,960k (prior 1,968k); U.S. PPI Final Demand m/m for July, est. 0.1% (est. 0.1%

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort for Aug. 6 (prior 49.6)

* Today:

** OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, usually ~11am-12pm

** India celebrates World Biofuel Day, speakers include Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan; Power Minister Piyush Goyal and Indian Oil Corp. Chairman Sanjiv Singh

** U.S. updates El Nino/La Nina monthly forecast

** Iraqi loading programs for September

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep17 - 309.50 / 311.50

Oct17 - 308.75 / 310.75

Nov17 - 307.75 / 309.75

Dec17 - 307.00 / 309.00

Jan18 - 306.25 / 308.25

Feb18 - 305.75 / 307.75

Q4-17 - 307.75 / 309.75

Q1-18 - 305.50 / 307.50

Q2-18 - 305.25 / 307.75

Q3-18 - 305.00 / 307.50

CAL18 - 303.00 / 306.50

CAL19 - 298.25 / 303.25

CAL20 - 272.50 / 279.50

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep17 - 314.50 / 316.50

Oct17 - 314.25 / 316.25

Nov17 - 313.50 / 315.50

Dec17 - 313.25 / 315.25

Jan18 - 313.00 / 315.00

Feb18 - 312.75 / 314.75

Q4-17 - 313.50 / 315.50

Q1-18 - 312.50 / 314.50

Q2-18 - 312.50 / 315.00

Q3-18 - 312.50 / 315.00

CAL18 - 307.75 / 311.25

CAL19 - 307.50 / 312.50

CAL20 - 281.50 / 288.50

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Sep17 296.00 / 298.00

Oct17 293.00 / 295.00

Nov17 290.50 / 292.50

Dec17 288.25 / 290.25

Jan18 289.25 / 291.25

Feb18 289.75 / 291.75

Q4-290.50 / 292.50

Q1-1290.00 / 292.00

Q2-18 290.75 / 293.25

Q3-18 290.75 / 293.25

CAL18 287.75 / 291.25

CAL19 279.00 / 284.00

CAL20 260.25 / 267.25



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.




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